{"id":305784,"date":"2022-10-31T13:02:46","date_gmt":"2022-10-31T13:02:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.capsudopportunityfund.com\/capitulation-alone-wont-do-for-investors\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T08:20:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T08:20:01","slug":"capitulation-alone-wont-do-for-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.capsudopportunityfund.com\/en\/capitulation-alone-wont-do-for-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"Capitulation alone won\u2019t do for investors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As earnings season is still watched closely, leadership in the UK has changed yet again. Meanwhile, investors have been capitulating throughout the year. But is it enough? What do current conditions mean for you? Discover the views of our experts in this Research Weekly.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key take-aways<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Investors first capitulated on energy price spikes, then in equities, and now in China and in bonds. This creates room for countermoves, but not all of them are likely to last.<\/li><li>The bottoming out of risk assets is proceeding as expected. We see our more constructive stance on Europe\u2019s handling of the energy crisis confirmed.<\/li><li>In the UK, following the resignation of Liz Truss, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak is the latest British Prime Minister.<\/li><li>A Sunak government could introduce more feasible fiscal plans that help restore confidence in the UK\u2019s fiscal policy, stabilising the pound and eventually reducing the risk premium on gilts.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this year, investors capitulated in commodity markets and bought into the \u2018commodity super cycle\u2019. Yet six months later, commodity indices have turned in a \u2018death cross\u2019 (a technical signal indicating \u2018more downside ahead\u2019).<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is particularly noteworthy for Europe, where the political and media arenas engaged in apocalyptic storytelling all summer long. Yet despite all the doom and gloom ahead of the feared winter of 2023\/2024, gas spot prices in Europe are currently well below anything seen so far during the energy crisis.  Some of them are even below pre-crisis levels.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are clearly special factors at work too. Yet it is worthwhile acknowledging that our more constructive view on Europe\u2019s handling of the energy crisis is materialising.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What impact has this had?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the summer, investors started capitulating in equities too. Bourses panicked over the relentless monetary tightening by leading central banks, triggering another massive selloff in September 2022. Still in capitulation mode, investors then turned to bond markets. Hence, bond yields spiked above the 4% level in the 10-year US Treasury market last week. This marks the highest level since the Great Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>If it were as easy as buying into anything where investors have capitulated, you could leave investing to algorithmic trading altogether.<\/p><cite>Christian Gattiker, CFA, CAIA, Head of Research at Julius Baer<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And after the weekend, the capitulation moved to China, where foreign investors pulled the plug on their long-term positions in the Middle Kingdom after recent announcements about political leadership. Yet just to be clear: capitulation alone will not do. If it were as easy as buying into anything where investors have capitulated, you could leave investing to algorithmic trading altogether. But as an investor legend put it, \u201cInvesting is simple but not easy\u201d.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hence, these capitulation signals must be taken one by one to assess the odds of a more sizeable countermove. For now, we view the bottoming out in risk asset prices as confirmed. This means stock markets and corporate bonds have further to go. In contrast, we see continuous downside in commodity prices. For China, we do not view the landslide in stock prices as a long-term buying opportunity.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What\u2019s happening in the UK with GBP?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 20 October 2022, UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned after only 45 days in office, the shortest tenure in history. The damage done by the \u2018mini budget\u2019, which eroded voters\u2019 and financial markets\u2019 trust in the UK\u2019s fiscal policy, was simply too large. Watering down the tax cuts and replacing Chancellor Kwarteng with Jeremy Hunt, who then called off most of the plan\u2019s measures, did not help Truss to restore the backing from her party. Given the reputational damage, the Conservatives confronted a huge loss in voter support and have fallen far behind the Labour Party.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The task for the next party leader and PM, Rishi Sunak, is huge: restoring confidence in the UK\u2019s fiscal policy and battling high inflation while spurring growth and winning back voters.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new government will surely be prudent about elevated sensitivity on fiscal policy and not repeat Truss\u2019s mistakes. A Sunak government has particular potential to restore confidence, as he had already competently sailed through the coronavirus crisis as Chancellor. In his past campaign, Sunak promised to expand direct support to households to mitigate the cost-of-living crisis and to cut the VAT on energy bills but not to endeavour on more risky tax-cutting operations as Truss had attempted.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, we see the potential that Sunak could further calm markets, which would keep the pound more stable going forward. More visibility will be needed for markets to price out the risk premium on UK gilts, but the chances of gilt yields softening further are rising.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As earnings season is still watched closely, leadership in the UK has changed yet again. Meanwhile, investors have been capitulating throughout the year. But is it enough? What do current conditions mean for you? Discover the views of our experts in this Research Weekly. Key take-aways Investors first capitulated on energy price spikes, then in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":370,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-305784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classifiee"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Capitulation alone won\u2019t do for investors - Cap Sud Opportunity Fund<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.capsudopportunityfund.com\/en\/capitulation-alone-wont-do-for-investors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Capitulation alone won\u2019t do for investors - Cap Sud Opportunity Fund\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As earnings season is still watched closely, leadership in the UK has changed yet again. Meanwhile, investors have been capitulating throughout the year. But is it enough? What do current conditions mean for you? Discover the views of our experts in this Research Weekly. 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